The California Fuel Cell Partnership Releases Vision for Transition to Fuel Cell Vehicle Commercialization
Sacramento. Calif. – The California Fuel Cell Partnership has released its vision of the rollout of fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen stations over the next few years, starting the transition from today’s demonstration programs to the early commercial market.
The “Vision for Rollout of Fuel Cell Vehicles and Hydrogen Fuel Stations” is available on the CaFCP website as an overview and as the complete 12-page document. Using current data and projections, the document outlines CaFCP members’ consensus projections for the number of vehicles on the road, the number and types of stations needed to provide fuel to the early drivers, costs for building a hydrogen station and government support necessary for the transition.
“Most reports agree that fuel cell vehicles will reach the commercial market with hundreds of thousands of vehicles in the 2017-2025 timeframe,” explained Catherine Dunwoody, CaFCP’s Executive Director. “It can be difficult to see how we move from today’s 200 FCVs and 25 limited-access stations to a commercial market. This document provides a clear vision of how that transition can occur.”
The report considers three next-step phases:
- Technology Introduction which is marked by hundreds of fuel cell passenger vehicles, approximately 10 fuel cell buses and the first retail-like hydrogen stations. This is the current phase and is projected to end in 2010.
- Pre-commercial with thousands of vehicles, tens of buses and tens of stations from 2010 through 2013
- Early Commercial with tens of thousands of vehicles, hundreds of buses, and hundreds of stations, from 2013 through the end of 2016
“These should not be considered hard numbers,” Dunwoody said. “Some companies will enter each phase a little sooner or later.” The vision acknowledges that during this transition, hydrogen stations will not be profitable and will, therefore, require government support. The document provides several scenarios for government funding, as well as other forms of support, such as establishing a state-sponsored risk pool for insurance and streamlining the process for permitting stations.
“Moving towards a hydrogen future has clear benefits for the environment and the economy,” Dunwoody stated. “To achieve commercialization, California needs to establish a network of early hydrogen fuel stations focused in key early markets. Although the benefits may not be fully realized for years to come, it is time to take the next step toward this transition now.”
Report highlights:
- By the end of 2012-2014 fuel cell passenger vehicles in California are projected to require approximately 5,250 kg hydrogen per day. This supply could be provided by twenty 400 kg/day stations or forty 200 kg/day stations, or some combination of stations with these or other supply capacities.
- Stations that make hydrogen on site and stations that have hydrogen delivered are both feasible options for near-term deployment. A rough estimate for capital costs for early stations is approximately $2-4 million, excluding land and operating costs.
- In the early years, hydrogen could cost approximately $8-13/gasoline gallon equivalent, or gge (untaxed). When considering the increased efficiency of a fuel cell vehicle, that compares to gasoline at $4.00-6.50/gallon (untaxed) on a mileage basis. Prices will come down with experience and economies of scale.
- As a rough estimate, the State of California should plan to spend $80-$90 million over four years (2010 through 2014) for hydrogen fuel stations to support the pre-commercial vehicle phase. This support could be provided in a variety of methods, and should not be limited to matching money for building stations.
- Recognizing the significant well-to-wheels benefits of hydrogen made from natural gas and the expense of renewable hydrogen in the early years, government should incentivize, but not require, renewable hydrogen for early stations.
Please visit www.cafcp.org for the overview or full version of “Vision for Rollout of Fuel Cell Vehicles and Hydrogen Fuel Stations.”












