| Hydrogen
powered vehicles could potentially, in the best case scenario, result in
the elimination of all oil from U.S. transportation over the next 50 years,
a National Research Council study released Thursday revealed.
In a press call with reporters, the
chair of the National Research Council committee Mike Ramage analyzed the
findings of the study, which focused on the best case outcomes for the
use of hydrogen energy by the year 2023. Best case means that "technical
hurdles are solved - vehicles are cost- effective, and that consumers will
buy them," Ramage said.
"In the best case, by 2023 hydrogen
could be economically competitive," Ramage said.
The study was limited to the impact
hydrogen would have, not assessing the possible impact of electric-powered
vehicles, such as General Motors Chevy Volt, that many automakers expect
to significantly impact the transportation industry. The study did not
examine these vehicles due in part to the difficulty of predicting future
performance of lithium batteries.
In the short term, over the next
15-20 years, Ramage urged the continued use of biofuels, noting that they
"would have most likely impact on oil reduction and carbon dioxide reduction."
However, as technology allows hydrogen to maximize its potential, hydrogen
will overtake biofuels and have a "dominant effect" on the industry, Ramage
said.
"Hydrogen by itself in this best
case scenario could eliminate 60 - 70 percent of oil and carbon dioxide
from transportation system by 2050," Ramage said. Combined with biofuels
and other environmentally friendly solutions, Ramage said "you could potentially
in the best case eliminate all oil from U.S. transportation."
However, the study was focused purely
on best-case scenarios. Practically, Ramage suggested that the U.S. examine
all options, structuring a plan that is diversified in alternative energy
sources so that if one option failed there would be sufficient back-up.
The NRC study found that hydrogen
could power a few million vehicles by 2020, 60 million vehicles by 2035,
and would power 80 percent of new transportation fleet by 2050," Ramage
said. Government support for hydrogen would include spending $50 billion
over the next 15 years to bring down vehicle costs in order to allow hydrogen
vehicles to become a self-sustaining market.
The ethanol subsidy, by contrast,
will cost the U.S. government $160 billion over the next 15 years, Ramage
said.
"The report basically indicates that
the government needs to make decisions for the long haul," Ramage said.
Hydrogen fuel cells are around 10
years from commercialization, Ramage added. |