| CLEVELAND,
OH-- Commercial demand for fuel cell products and services -- including
revenues associated with prototyping, demonstration and test marketing
activities -- will expand nearly sixfold to $2.5 billion in 2011 and reach
$8.5 billion in 2016. Despite the small size of fuel cell technology's
current commercial footprint, a number of viable markets are expected to
develop over the next ten years as technological advances and economies
of scale help drive costs down to competitive levels. High energy prices
and environmental concerns will also contribute to fuel cell commercialization
activity and market gains. As additional products enter the marketplace,
commercial sales will make up an increasingly large share of total fuel
cell expenditures. However, it will take time for fuel cells to penetrate
markets now served by other power sources, and commercial demand will continue
to account for less than half of all fuel cell spending in 2016. These
and other trends are presented in "World Fuel Cells," a new study from
The Freedonia Group, Inc., a Cleveland-based industry market research firm.
With a number of products now on
the market, electric power generation applications accounted for well over
half of all commercial fuel cell sales in 2006. However, the portable electronics
market is forecast to register the strongest growth through 2011 and beyond,
rising from what are presently extremely low levels of demand, as commercialization
activity picks up. Demand for fuel cell-powered motor vehicles will also
rise at a healthy rate, driven by increases in prototyping, demonstration
and test marketing activity as fuel cell technology continues to improve
and manufacturing costs decline.
In 2006, five countries -- the US,
Japan, Germany, Canada and the UK -- accounted for four-fifths of all commercial
fuel cell demand. These and other developed nations will continue to account
for the vast majority of product and service sales over the next decade,
with a few notable exceptions, like China. Most developing countries are
not expected to become sizable fuel cell markets until some time later,
due both to less evolved end-use sectors and a scarcity of capital to invest
in early-generation fuel cell systems. However, fuel cells will find some
use as a source of electricity in developing nations with inadequate central
power grids.
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