| SAN JOSE,
Calif. — Despite a flurry of announcements and investments in micro fuel
cells for portable devices, the technology is not expected to become a
mainstream product until 2010 or so, according to an expert in the arena.
The ''energy gap'' in portable electronics
is making micro fuel cells increasingly attractive, but the technology
has been plagued by high costs, lack of standards, financial losses and
bad publicity. For example, NTT DoCoMo (Tokyo) has reportedly backed away
from teaming up with Aquafairy Co. (Osaka, Japan) to develop a water-powered
fuel cell for mobile phones, according to sources. Last year, NTT DoCoMo
took a 36.5 percent stake in Japanese fuel cell company Aquafairy.
This month, Medis Technologies Ltd.
(New York) claimed it began commercial sales of its fuel cell line to Microsoft.
But Medis was subsequently sued by shareholders, after it was revealed
the firm only shipped a few products to Microsoft, which gave away the
units at trade shows, according to sources.
The micro fuel cell ''industry has
been long in promises, but short on deliveries,'' said Paul Zimmerman,
chief executive of Angstrom Power Inc. (Vancouver, Canada), one of the
emerging developers of micro fuel cells.
In an interview, Zimmerman said that
micro fuel cells will become more of a ''mainstream'' product, when the
overall business reaches a critical mass in the 2010 time frame. ''I think
2010 will be a watershed year,'' he said.
The worldwide micro cell fuel market
is projected to range from $50-to-$100 million in sales by 2010, jumping
to $100-to-$200 million by 2011, according to Angstrom Power. Until that
time, there is expected to be a major shakeout in micro fuel cells, which
consists of some 30 to 40 players in the arena right now, he said. Among
the current major players in the market are Angstrom, Aquafairy, Teckion,
Millennium Cell, MTI, Toshiba and others.
''It's an intriguing market, but
the cost [of micro fuel cells] is the main problem,'' said Will Strauss,
president of Forward Concepts Co. (Tempe, Ariz.), a market research firm.
''You also still can't take that stuff on a plane.''
Last year, the International Electrotechnical
Commission (IEC) published a safety specification for small fuel cells,
which supposedly opened the door for fuel cell use on passenger aircraft
in the 2007 time frame. But it appears that this target date will get delayed
for some time, due to safety issues.
Micro fuel cells are expected to
constitute a $12 million market in 2006 and are predicted to reach $112
million in 2011, according to a new report by Innovative Research and Products
(Stamford, Conn.). Among the various portable-product categories, iRAP
predicts, micro fuel cells' use in PDAs will show the highest average annual
growth rate though 2011, of 89.8 percent, followed by usage in camcorders,
chargers and other consumer electronics, with a growth rate of 83.7 percent,
and in mobile phone applications, at 50.7 percent.
Among the various technologies being
pursued, direct methanol fuel cells will capture the largest share, followed
by hydrogen-based fuel cells and those based on proprietary fuels, according
to iRAP. A micro fuel cell (MFC) is an electrochemical device that converts
the chemical energy of fuel, such as hydrogen or methanol or some patented
fuel, into electrical energy, according to the research firm.
''Fuel cells have potentially higher
energy density than batteries and promise a significant increase in power
availability for portable electronics,'' according to the firm. ''However,
developing a fuel cell system for portable electronics presents several
engineering challenges.''
''There is some progress in the development
of micro fuel cells,'' said Angstrom's Zimmerman. ''This is also an industry
that has frustrated people.''
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