| VANCOUVER
(CP) - The Opel Zafira tooling around downtown Vancouver turned a few heads.
The tall little station wagon is
a General Motors product sold in Europe but that wasn't the draw.
It was the colourful livery announcing
that it was powered by a hydrogen fuel cell, and the fact its exhaust was
little more than a dribble of water, the fuel cell's only byproduct other
than heat.
GM and other automakers have brought
their prototypes to Vancouver for a major conference on hydrogen and fuel
cells Monday and Tuesday, which is drawing delegates from more than 30
countries.
They staged a weekend rally to the
mountain resort town of Whistler to demonstrate how far fuel-cell cars
have come.
But weren't Canadians - some of them
anyway - supposed to be in their own zero-pollution hydrogen cars by now?
Even the technology's steadfast supporters
now admit that promise, made in the 1990s, was a little optimistic.
"I think people were a little bit
naive then about how long it takes to get a technology into a car and then
into the hands of a consumer," says Noordin Nanji, vice-president and chief
customer officer at Ballard Power Systems, the Vancouver-based fuel-cell
pioneer.
"You can't just put a new technology
into a car and start selling it. It takes time."
Few technologies have suffered more
from high hopes than fuel cells.
"There was a lot of expectation about
the passenger-car market and that was because Ford and DaimlerChrysler
invested in Ballard," says John Tak, chief executive officer of Hydrogen
and Fuel Cells Canada, a government-industry technology group.
When DaimlerChrysler cemented its
alliance with Ballard (TSX:BLD) in 1997, a top executive from the automaker
predicted the first cars would be rolling out around 2005.
"There was a lot of expectation about
the passenger-car market and that was because Ford and DaimlerChrysler
invested in Ballard," says Tak.
But the obstacles to commercializing
hydrogen fuel cells, especially for vehicles, have proven more formidable
than their boosters foresaw.
Fuel cells use a chemical reaction
between hydrogen and air to make electricity. When pure hydrogen is used,
there are no pollutants or greenhouse gases, with pure water and heat the
only byproducts.
Ballard is producing units for stationary-power
uses, such as home electricity generation in Japan, and backup power for
telecom centres.
But the only mobile applications
so far are in transit buses deployed in experimental fleets around the
world and for electric forklifts, where Tak says cost isn't as big a factor.
Cars and trucks present major challenges
in an era where even low-cost models are expected to perform flawlessly.
Volume-produced fuel-cell vehicles
will have to equal conventional vehicles in long-term durability, reliability,
ease of operation, range and cost, says Todd Goldstein, an engineer at
GM's fuel-cell activities centre in Torrence, Calif.
"We need to have a vehicle that'll
last 150,000 kilometres or more," he says. "That's the target.
"That'll involve us working very
closely with our suppliers to make our components automotive grade and
also certainly make them cost-effective to meet our targets for cost down
the road."
Goldstein says GM is aiming for fuel-cell
vehicles initially to carry a small price premium over conventional models
the way hybrids do today.
Nanji attributes the initial optimism
to the fact automakers' research and development boffins were doing the
talking, not the product-development engineers who would have to turn their
technology into marketable cars.
That's changed as fuel cells loom
larger in future products.
"So that's a real step forward for
the industry in terms of being more realistic about what it's going to
take," says Nanji.
A consensus is emerging that fuel-cell
vehicles will start trickling into private hands within three to five years,
with retail sales by the middle of the next decade.
"General Motors is anticipating that
around 2010 you'll see these vehicles start to be deployed for fleet applications,"
says Goldstein. "It's going to be probably 2015 before these vehicles are
available to the average consumer."
Honda has promised to begin limited
marketing of a fuel-cell car, based on its FCX family of prototypes, within
a couple of years.
The fuel-cell Opel - redubbed HydroGen
3 because it's GM's third-generation development vehicle - gives some hint
of how far the technology has come in 10 years, and how far it has to go
before it's showroom-ready.
Smoother and quieter than previous
models, its systems nonetheless send whining noises into the cabin.
Electric direct-drive systems offer
inherently good pickup, but the HydroGen 3's 1,600 kilograms is still a
lot for the 80-horsepower motor to haul around.
The car's emergency brake also engages
at every stop and disengages when the driver steps on the "gas," creating
a little lurch every time.
These are all things Goldstein says
will have to be ironed out before volume production begins.
GM's next fuel-cell evolution is
due this fall - 100 units of the Chevrolet Equinox crossover SUV that will
be leased to average consumers in California, New York and Washington,
D.C.
"The vehicles themselves will be
built at the Canadian engineering centre outside of Oshawa (Ont.)," Goldstein
adds.
The Equinox - HydroGen 4 - will have
a range of about 300 kilometres, roughly a third longer than the Zafira.
There's no indication any will see
a Canadian winter, although reliable cold-weather starting is important.
GM's goal is a drive-away start at minus-10 Celsius, with the vehicle plugged
into a heater overnight.
But Ballard's Nanji says his company
has already achieved minus-20 without auxiliary heating and its target
is minus-30 by 2010.
GM is not a Ballard customer. Like
Toyota and Honda, it's chosen to develop its own fuel-cell stack.
"GM recognized early on that was
a key piece of the equation," says Goldstein.
The automaker believes designing
the fuel cell in-house will allow it to perfect it more for automotive
use, where companies like Ballard must design it for wider application.
That's understandable, says Nanji.
Large automakers want to understand the technology from the ground up rather
than out-source. From there, they can decide how to handle manufacturing.
So Ballard's not burning its bridges
with players like GM because it hopes eventually to end up as a component
supplier.
"We have to be reasonably flexible
on how we look at opportunity," Nanji said.
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