| As crude oil
prices hover around record highs and global carmakers unveil their fuel
cell-powered vehicles at motor shows, consumers are increasingly aware
that fuel cells are not only in the environmentalists' future, but in their
future as well.
The fast-growing appetite for efficiency
among energy-conscious people has led many leading automakers turn their
gaze toward the new alternative energy source. This has led to fierce competition
to capture the people's imagination, and market share.
While fuel cells for home use are
lagging their automotive counterparts, Bae Joon-kang, chief executive officer
of GS FuelCell Co., said people can expect to see more fuel cell-powered
living rooms and hot running water in years to come.
"Currently, the government plans
to supply 10 thousand household fuel cell generators nationwide. The figure
will reach 750 thousand in 2020 and 3.5 million in 2040," the 43-year-old
former engineer told The Korea Herald.
"If we suppose about one million
gas-fired household boilers are sold annually, with technological advances
and commercialization, that can be our market."
Considering financial savings from
lower electricity consumption and higher fuel efficiency, he forecasts
lower prices for fuel cells will generate increased demand in coming years.
"The fuel cells have other various
functions, compared to conventional gas-fired boilers. So if the household
fuel cell generator is priced below two million won ($2,050), it can completely
dominate the current home heating system market," Bae said.
"Even with a price tag of five million
won, they could win market share," he added.
His outlook is based on a wide array
of benefits that the fuel cell generators are expected to provide consumers.
Generating electric power and heating
at the same time, Bae estimated the recently-developed fuel cell generator
will use about 26 percent less gas and on average emit 40 percent less
carbon dioxide.
"To produce one kilowatt of electricity
through our fuel cells, it costs around 150 to 160 won per hour in natural
gas consumption. But electric charge for the same amount hovers around
300 to 400 won," he noted.
"Taking the extra free heating into
account, the profit margin could offset the relatively high price of fuel
cell generators."
In addition, office buildings and
factories could see bigger returns on the investment with the alternative
energy source, because they pay less for gas than households.
Government roadmap
Despite such promising prospects,
Bae said fuel cell manufacturers should work closely with the government,
because the home use fuel cell market is yet to get off the ground.
"Demand will neither abruptly pop
up, nor will producers suddenly reduce the unit price to speed up the commercialization
process," he said.
"We have to move in tandem with the
government's blueprint."
According to the government's fuel
cell backup scheme, one kilowatt household generators are to hit the market
with a price tag of some 10 million won in 2011.
The Commerce Ministry unveiled the
plan last week to test-run 40 fuel cell-powered generators this year with
over 20 billion won plowed in the commercialization plan.
"The generators will be running in
750 thousand homes nationwide by 2020, and the number will go up to 3.5
million in 2040 according to the government's timeline," Bae noted.
Fast-moving Japan
However, he is concerned that the
ministry's road map still falls far behind the rather more ambitious Japanese
government and developers, which Bae considers to be potential threats.
"The Japanese government began testing
the household fuel cells in 2002 under the guidance of its energy development
organization, NEDO," he said.
"They aim to decrease the unit price
to one million yen ($9,000) in two years," he added.
This suggests that energy-conscious
Japanese consumers will go shopping for the more affordable fuel cell generators
in Tokyo after 2008, at a time when a minimum number of Korean houses are
still being tested.
The Japanese advances are of concern
to Bae, who said "The Japanese industries, colleges, researchers and government
are expressing the exact same goal. That is to launch price-competitive
products in 2008."
This, Bae said, would give the Japanese
a major advantage, "Japanese rivals could tap the Korean market sooner
on the back of larger production capacities and lower prices," he said.
Time matters
But Bae emphasized his six-year-old
company is equal to any Japanese company, at least on the technological
front.
"I think we have almost overtaken
foreign rivals technologically," he said.
"The point is how we can secure the
products durability to get more trust from consumers," he added, underlining
that the fuel cell generator should run 24 hours a day for some 10 years.
Bae said the Japanese have the advantage
of having several years testing to their credit, and that again gives them
an edge.
"Fuel cell development is not like
some hotshot venture which can make a fast return on short-term investment,"
he said.
"Time matters in this business."

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