| Fuel cell
developers have come out of the traps running in 2006. In the past month,
there have been big jumps in the share prices of fuel cell companies in
the US, UK and Italy.
That has largely been due to rising
speculation that fuel cells, developed at vast expense for the US space
programme, might at last be nearing commercialisation. Stubbornly high
conventional energy prices have not hurt as investors look for an alternative
to fossil fuels.
Tom Frost, analyst at Numis Securities,
warns that valuation of what are essentially concept stocks is very difficult
and investors should treat the share price movements with caution.
"Fuel cell developers have been promising
commercially viable products for years and they are potentially massive,"
he says. "They could replace all the batteries and all the combustion engines
in the world. The trouble is that nobody has yet delivered."
Recent developments suggest that,
commercialisation might not be too far off. Analysts see potential in companies
that have strong intellectual property, a commercial focus and good positioning
in the right markets. Polyfuel, a US company whose shares have risen 89.4
per cent in London this year, estimates that the market for portable fuel
cells for the consumer electronics industry will be commercially viable
by 2007 or 2008.
Jim Balcom, chief executive, says
that a significant research and development effort from consumer electronics
groups has been sparked by the transition to wireless internet, which requires
ever more powerful batteries, and demands from mobile phone companies,
which need to produce handsets with more power and battery time to be able
to offer customers ever more sophisticated content.
Polyfuel, which makes membranes used
in fuel cells, says NEC, Japan's largest handset maker, is testing its
product, along with 11 other electronics companies including Hitachi, Fujitsu
and Sanyo.
Polyfuel has used the recent upswing
in interest to raise an extra £10m on the Alternative Investment
Market in London, saying it found a strong appetite among investors for
the sector.
Ceres Power, whose shares have risen
49.1 per cent this year, has also attracted interest from institutional
investors, with blue-chip fund manager Fidelity raised its stake from from
1.3 per cent to 6.2 per cent this month.
The company is developing fuel cells
that could power domestic boilers and has tie-ups with BG Group and industrial
gas group BOC in the UK. Although Ceres declines to put a timeframe on
the commercialisation of its products, these joint ventures have given
investors confidence that the groups will eventually find their way to
market.
Other companies in the sector have
benefited from the clamour for shares. Italy's Acta is up 17.8 per cent
and the UK's CMR Fuel Cells and Voller Energy are up 39.9 per cent and
37.5 per cent respectively this year. ITM Power, the fuel cell developer
of the UK, has climbed more than 40 per cent since it announced this month
that it had achieved the three remaining technical milestones set out in
its prospectus prior to its flotation in June 2004 on Aim.
Mark Davis, an analyst at Panmure
Gordon, has urged clients to buy the shares, although he does not expect
the company to produce commercial revenues until 2009.
"While commercial revenues remain
elusive, the milestones extend the level of know-how within ITM and reinforce
its credibility," he says.
Peter Hargreaves, a director at ITM,
believes the current debate in the UK concerning nuclear power has focused
interest in the sector. He believes the UK will eventually have to move
to an energy policy that relies on a combination of nuclear and renewable
energy.
The problem with this approach, with
current technology, is the inability to store energy from renewable resources
to cope with surges in power demand.
However, ITM, along with other fuel
cell companies, are developing electrolysers that can store renewable energy
as hydrogen, thereby giving a power network the flexibility it needs to
cope with sudden demand. "If ITM shares were rated as an electrolyser stock
and not a fuel cell stock, they would be much higher," he says.
|