| Few technologies
have created a short-term buzz in the financial markets, power industry
or technology pioneers as fuel cells have in the recent year or so. Based
on their infancy in the way they affect the accounting profession, "fuel
cells" were chosen as one of the 2005 Emerging Technologies. Here's why.
A Short History of Fuel Cells
For the past century, the main sources
of electricity were central power plants that used hydropower, coal, oil,
nuclear and natural gas. The past decade has seen increasing recognition
and market expansion of something called "distributed generation," or that
the electricity being generated is being used where it is being produced.
The technologies employed to do this were traditionally steam boilers,
small hydro facilities and, more recently, small gas turbines. The units
provide enough power to run, for example, factories, government facilities,
hospitals and college campuses.
Technological progress never ends,
but it does tend to make things smaller, more efficient, higher performing
and more economically compelling - now occurring with devices called "fuel
cells," which were invented in 1839 by Sir William Robert Grove, a Welsh
judge, inventor and physicist. His invention didn't produce enough electricity
to be useful, and so it languished for over a century until the United
States began to seriously pursue the development of manned spaceflight.
The best available technology, which needed considerable development to
satisfy the power demands of spacecraft, was the fuel cell.
What is a Fuel Cell?
A fuel cell is a device that directly
converts the electrochemical energy stored in fuel into electricity without
combustion. It does this by exposing a fuel such as hydrogen or a pure
metal to a catalyst that strips away the electrons from the atoms in the
fuel. The electrons are given a conductive path to travel in and are collected
to form a current that can do useful work. The electron-starved atoms are
exposed to an air feed, which lets them "oxidize," thus forming a new,
stable waste product.
Since single electrons don't do much,
enough fuel must be oxidized to provide whatever power levels are needed.
The amount of electrons released is proportional to the surface area of
the catalyst. As a result, the catalysts are arranged in layers in proportion
to the desired output. By putting layer upon layer, tightly bound and sealed,
a fuel cell "stack" is formed.
A wide variety of fuel cell technologies
has been developed and more are being invented. The most widely used technologies
are proton exchange membrane (PEM), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) and molten
carbonate fuel cell (MCFC). There are other technologies, but none have
the traction that these technologies have in the early marketplace.
PEM technologies are favored for
smaller outputs for cars, houses (mainly in Japan), portable power supplies,
and backup power systems of a few to a few tens of kilowatts. MCFC fuel
cells are suitable for businesses, hotels, wastewater treatment plants,
institutions and other buildings, as well as shipboard power supplies.
SOFC units, which like MCFC can use propane and natural gas directly, are
getting attention for residential combined heat and power systems, and
auxiliary power units on big trucks, businesses and factories.
Competitive Factors Favoring Fuel
Cells
There is a "magic" number for on-site
power production machinery. For economic viability, the buyer wishes to
pay about $1,000 per kilowatt for the installed system and all of its associated
"balance of plant" equipment, including fuel cleaners, compressors, heat
recovery system, exhaust and control electronics. The number is approximate,
because even the lowest-cost on-site system, reciprocating engines (modified
versions of systems used in road vehicles) will cost over $1,200 per kilowatt
capacity installed. A 100 kW unit, suitable for powering an apartment building,
small office park building or a car wash, will cost approximately $120,000
(plus maintenance contract).
After installation, fuel prices and
consumption rates come into play. There also may be a problem with emissions,
particularly nitrogen oxide and carbon monoxide. Various air quality regulations
may prohibit regular operation of reciprocating engines in some areas,
or limit the number of hours they can operate annually. These factors are
precisely why fuel cells have caused so much excitement.
Fuel cells have carbon emissions
that are up to 80 percent lower than combustion technologies, plus there
are virtually no nitrogen oxides, a principal cause of smog in the exhaust.
Fuel cells can be used in areas where other onsite power supplies are simply
not permitted.
Efficiency is where fuel cells are
far superior. Both MCFC and SOFC systems are 50+ percent efficient in extracting
electricity from fuel. Reciprocating engines and gas turbines have native
efficiencies that are just under 30 percent at best. A current new- technology
darling, the microturbine, operates with low emissions, but is so inefficient
at producing electricity by burning fuel that it sometimes called a heat
generator that produces electricity as a byproduct.
A final attractive feature is reliability.
Proven fuel cells routinely operate nearly unattended for 95 percent to
99 percent of the time, so maintenance costs are very low. Reciprocating
engines and gas turbines, on the other hand, have a good year with uptimes
that reach 85 percent. oil changes, worn parts and component failures are
much more common. When they are down for maintenance or repair, the owner
must pay peak power rates to utility for backup power, which can significantly
erode any economic gain from having an on-site power supply.
The Economics of Fuel Cells
First price is where fuel cells suffer
compared to other power generation technologies. The best price for proven
products (there aren't that many on the market) is $3,000 per kW. That
is not attractive, even with soaring fuel prices.
Consider, though, that fuel cells
costs averaged around $20,000 per kilowatt in 1999, so prices are definitely
headed in the right direction. In the right situation, they are even competitive.
For example, sewage running through municipal wastewater treatment plants
emit large amounts of methane, which is a valuable fuel (it is the major
constituent of natural gas). In cities designated as "severe nonattainment
zones" by the Environmental Protection Agency because of air quality issues,
fuel cells and microturbines are the only option for capturing the energy
in that waste gas.
The federal government, and many
state governments and municipalities, have established grant funds for
clean energy projects. Fuel cells are ranked with wind turbines, photovoltaics
and small hydro as favored "Tier 1" renewables. Technically, fuel cells
don't belong there unless they are using pure hydrogen electrolyzed from
water using electricity from a renewable power generator, such as a wind
turbine, a run of the river small hydro plant or solar cells. They also
can use methane at wastewater treatment plants, landfills or anaerobically
digested animal waste at concentrated animal feed lots.
There is plenty of money available
to buy down the initial cost of fuel cells. The Energy Policy Act of 2005
authorizes several billion dollars of tax credits for fuel cell purchases.
Some state governments with "clean energy funds," whose monies come from
a small surcharge on electricity consumed in the state, make grants available
that essentially halve the price of a fuel cell. Such grants are usually
offered in states that are trying to encourage the growth of a fuel cell
industry within the state.
The Department of Defense (DOD) also
runs an ongoing program that buys fuel cells and sets performance parameters
that move the technology forward. The equipment, purchased, and development
projects funded, cover a wide range of military applications, including
stationary and portable power supplies; micro fuel cells to replace batteries
that soldiers would otherwise have to carry; ship engines; aircraft auxiliary
units; and land, sea and aircraft propulsion systems. The military was
the main funding source of fuel cell development through the 1990s, after
which investors and venture capital became the prime mover of technological
progress.
Fuel Cell Markets
Fuel cell markets are generally divided
into stationary, vehicular, portable and micro fuel cells.
Stationary fuel cells are essentially
on-site power plants that provide electricity and often hot air or water,
while vehicular fuel cells provide motive power. Every car company on the
planet now has a fuel cell program, or is partnering with other car companies
to share the costs of development. A new trend is that many vehicle manufacturers
are jointly attempting to define standards to reduce costs by encouraging
commonality and mass production of components.
Virtually all development efforts
for vehicles are focusing on PEM fuel cells, which use hydrogen as a fuel.
Corresponding programs are being carried out internationally, encouraged
and coordinated by the International Energy Agency, to develop worldwide
agreement on technological goals for supplying, storing and delivering
hydrogen, particularly for vehicles.
It is probably worthwhile to note
that hydrogen fuel cellpowered cars became competitive with gasoline-fueled
cars when the price of gasoline reached $2.00 per gallon in the United
States. Even with this eco\nomic milestone having been passed, PEM fuel
cells are regarded as being only half as reliable as they need to be to
fully replace gasolinefueled internal combustion engines.
In the stationary market, only a
small handful of companies are marketing fuel cells commercially. The largest
fuel cells available are the MCFC from FuelCell Energy, which produces
modular fuel cells that are used to build power plants with capacities
ranging from 300 kW to more than a megawatt (a megawatt is enough electricity
to power several hundred homes). The only competitor is United Technologies,
which has several hundred 200 kW phosphoric acid fuel cells operating around
the world.
The company recently won a contract
to build a 10 megawatt fuel cell power plant for the Long Island Power
Authority. It will be the largest fuel cell installation on earth. FuelCell
Energy, which was the only other bidder for the power plant, has established
a business supplying fuel cells to wastewater treatment plants and hotels
(the Starwood chain, for example). Both companies depend on grants or direct
military or utility purchases for their sales, which have climbed to be
about a quarter of what they need to be for the price of the products to
be directly competitive with other distributed power generation technologies.
Micro fuel cells that power electronics
such as laptops, cell phones and MP3 players are regarded as the most promising
for commercialization by 2007 or 2008. These small devices supply essentially
endless power by allowing refueling from small hydrogen or methanol cartridges.
The methanol option is receiving the most attention. International standards
were recently defined for transporting methanol cartridges on board aircraft.
Portable fuel cells that deliver
tens to hundreds of watts are being sold commercially into markets where
price is not a concern, for example, in military applications and as power
supplies on yachts.
Other markets that are emerging are
telecommunications backup power at remote cell towers where batteries developed
a reputation for costly unreliability. A busy cell tower can lose tens
of thousands of dollars for its owner when its power supply fails. Fuel
cells in this application have proven to have operating life costs that
are lower than those of batteries.
Another early market is a packaging
concept that allows fuel cells to be inserted into industrial lift trucks
(fork lifts) as a direct replacement for batteries. Hydrogen-fueled PEM
replacements can be refueled in as little as eight minutes, compared to
six hours of recharging for battery-powered forklifts. Wal-Mart is moving
to a beta test of a few such fuel cell fork lifts, which is encouraging
for the industry since Wal-Mart alone operates a fleet of 14,000 fork lifts.
Conclusions
The fuel cell industry is slowly
reaching commercial status as companies place products in places unseen
by the general public, such as forklifts and remote sites. These are directly
competitive with existing technologies on a lifetime cost basis and, considering
the environmental impacts, an overall superior choice for the purchasers.
Having established a preferred status in such large market niches, the
industry will soon begin to look to develop other markets where similar
commercial advantages can be discovered.
Such successful installations depend
on being able to control all salient aspects of the application. Stationary
power supplies for buildings will, for several years more, continue to
rely on grants and other buydowns. The federal tax credits will help accelerate
the sales rates so that companies will be able to ramp production to reduce
the cost per component.
The buydowns, grants and subsidies
do make proven products competitive now; companies that consume more than
a few hundred kilowatts of electrical demand and also have use of waste
heat have fuel cell options that are economically justified. The challenge
faced by the few companies that produce viable products, such as those
that can be warrantied for more than a decade, is to find markets where
a few subsidized projects will lead to repeated sales of increasing quantities.
At stake is an industry whose technologies
can double and triple the efficiencies at which fuels are consumed and
whose emissions are generally cleaner than the ambient air. What is emerging
is a next generation industry that generates tens of thousands of jobs
over the next decade - a cornerstone of a technological age that may lead
to the end of fire as a central tool of civilization.
Michael Kujawa is a associate analyst
with BCC Research (www.bccresearch.com). He has authored book-length market
research analyses on markets for various clean energy technologies, including
stationary fuel cells, large wind turbines, photovoltaics, small hydro,
biogas, cogeneration, geothermal and ocean energy conversion devices. Mr.
Kujawa has a background in distributed energy resources, aerospace and
marine operations research, and systems software.

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