| CHIBA, Japan
(Reuters) --The debate over the best medium-term solution for cleaner cars
looks set to lengthen as auto executives in Japan for the Tokyo Motor Show
this week discussed more, not fewer, options for weaning cars off oil.
The race to develop more fuel-efficient
and less polluting cars has picked up pace as gas prices, exacerbated by
a series of devastating hurricanes in the United States, hit record levels
this year and as worries heighten over the impact of global warming on
climate patterns.
Most auto makers agree that fuel-cell
cars powered by hydrogen produced with renewable energy sources are the
end game since they would rely on no fossil fuels and emit only pure water.
But most said the technology was at least a decade away.
"The only breakthrough technology
is fuel cell because this is the one that guarantees you are out of oil
dependency," Carlos Ghosn, who heads both France's Renault SA (RENA.PA:
Quote, Profile, Research) and Japanese partner Nissan Motor Co. (7201.T:
Quote, Profile, Research), told reporters this week.
"But this will take a very long time."
In the meantime, auto makers are
caught in a war of words over what the best medium-term answer is, adding
more possibilities such as dual-fuel engines, "plug-in" electric hybrids,
diesel hybrids, and even the once-forsaken pure electric vehicles in a
bid to gain an edge over their rivals.
Late to join the hybrid party, many
European car makers touted the advantages of clean diesel systems, which
they argued cost less and got better mileage than gasoline-electric hybrids
depending on driving habits.
"Despite the big public debate right
now, it will just be a niche technology," BMW AG (BMWG.DE: Quote, Profile,
Research) Chief Executive Helmut Panke said, forecasting hybrids to account
for no more than 5 percent of all cars in the long term.
German peer Volkswagen AG (VOWG.DE:
Quote, Profile, Research) agreed that much of the hype around hybrids was
unwarranted, suggesting instead that the developing synthetic fuels could
prove more effective in cleaning tail-pipe emissions, especially when used
to power diesel engines.
"We need alternative energy sources,
not just improvement in powertrain," Research Director Wolfgang Steiger
said.
He added the know-how in processing
synthetic fuels, which are extracted or fabricated from solid earth materials
rich in hydrocarbons, could come in handy for hydrogen production when
fuel-cell vehicles arrive in earnest.
SETBACK FOR FUEL CELLS
On the other hand, Toyota Motor Corp.
(7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research) is eager for hybrids to take off, adding
the powertrain option on more models. Among them will be the Lexus LS flagship
sedan, a hybrid concept of which was unveiled at the auto show on Thursday.
In addition to working on hybrid
and fuel-cell technology, other Japanese auto makers such as Honda Motor
Co. (7267.T: Quote, Profile, Research) and Nissan are scrambling to improve
control systems on internal combustion engines to achieve better fuel economy.
"With all these possibilities on
the horizon, it's tough to predict what the future is going to hold," Ford
Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Director Mary Ann Wright said.
"But we believe there are going to
be many solutions, and that's why we're taking a portfolio approach."
Larry Burns, vice president of research
and development at General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research),
said this proliferation of powertrains was holding back progress in fuel-cell
technology as auto makers stretch their limited resources thin and wide.
"I think we need to think hard about
making the automobile dramatically simpler with hydrogen and fuel cells,"
Burns told Reuters, noting that a fuel-cell propulsion system had one-tenth
as many moving parts as an internal combustion engine.
While skeptics of fuel-cell vehicles
often bring up high infrastructure costs, GM, one of the most vocal proponents
of the technology, said it would only take $10 billion to $15 billion to
make hydrogen available to 70 percent of the U.S. population.
GM expects to develop a fuel-cell
propulsion system that would be at least as functional and affordable as
today's gasoline engines by 2010.
The world's biggest car maker won't
say when it would begin mass-producing the vehicles, but Burns said that
if 500,000 to 1 million were built, they would "cost no more than a gasoline
car."
At the Tokyo Motor Show, GM is displaying
its Sequel concept, the only fuel-cell car in the world that can run 300
miles (483 km) between refueling.
DaimlerChrysler AG (DCXGn.DE: Quote,
Profile, Research), another major player in the field, debuted a prototype
car that can run either on fuel cells or on a lithium ion battery and can
crank out 115 horsepower. Fully charged, the family sized car has a range
of 400 km.
"It's going to take collaboration
to transform the industry," Burns said.
"The world is on a trajectory where
it's becoming even more urgent to get this done, whether it's 9/11, the
Iraq war, the explosive growth of China's economy or hurricanes that expose
the vulnerability of energy infrastructures.
"We need to move faster rather than
slower."

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