Ford and General Motors are in dire financial straits. Credit rating agencies saw the automakers' plights as so desperate they cut their credit ratings to junk status, which means it is far more expensive for Ford and GM to borrow money.

At the same time, both companies are developing hydrogen-powered vehicles, and they are spending billions to do so. An insider at one company told me there's a raging debate right now about whether the automaker should be spending those billions on technologies that appear far off into the future. The debate centers about whether those billions should be cut to save money (and maybe the future of the company), or re-allocate those billions to new products that will keep the company afloat in the short run. I expect the short-term will win over the long range in Detroit.

On the other hand, Dennis Campbell, chief executive officer of Ballard Power Systems Inc., a premier company in developing fuel cells that is based in Vancouver, British Columbia, thinks we're approaching the tipping point toward a hydrogen economy. He's hoping so, anyway, since his company has a vested interest.

Campbell was in Detroit to talk to the Automotive Press Association, an organization of automotive media and public relations people, about the company's progress in developing fuel cells, devices that use hydrogen to generate electricity to propel vehicles and emit only water vapor. Indeed, most major companies, have very active hydrogen fuel-cell programs. Eight of the world's top automakers use Ballard's technology.

Describing the current situation in another overused clichâ (tipping point being the first), Campbell sees a perfect storm developing on the world stage. Trends contributing to that storm include: a rising demand for petroleum, with significantly higher demands from emerging markets like China and India; higher gas prices as a result of increased demand; the expected hike in the number of vehicles on the planet, especially in emerging markets; a shaky geo-political situation in the Middle East; and alarming indications of global warming reaching a point of no return, and air pollution in general.

Further, Japan, which has to import all of its oil, has a very active fuel-cell program that will have homes powered by fuel cells, and Japan has even mandated 50,000 fuel-cell vehicles on its roads by 2010. Honda and Toyota have substantial fuel-cell programs. Detroit automakers will argue otherwise, but it appears, once again, Japan is ahead. China could be the wild card. Like Japan, it also imports virtually all of its petroleum and is considering a hydrogen economy.

Experts like Campbell and Larry Burns, General Motors' vice president of research and development and strategic planning, think China, in fact, could be the tipping point if it decides to become a hydrogen economy. China, they note, has shown an inclination to skip steps of technology. For instance, China went from no phones to cell phones. The driving force behind a move to a hydrogen economy in China will not be pollution, which is a major problem there, but economics and geo-political forces, Burns believes.

"There will be events like 9-11, the Iraq war and the blackouts in the Northeast that will increase the urgency to find alternatives," Burns said.

He points to the fact that by 2020, 1.1 billion cars and trucks will be on the world's roads, up from about 750 million today.

"Park them end to end, they would wrap around the planet 125 times," Burns said, "or imagine 125 freeway lanes running side-by-side, bumper-to-bumper with cars."

The pollution potential, energy consumption, congestion and safety threats created by the increased number of motor vehicles, will force the change in what we drive.

"We have to find alternatives," Burns said.