In the U.S., comparatively traditional automotive technologies and methodologies in both manufacturing and engineering development are still the norm, albeit modernized considerably in the last 20 years. This modernization effort has primarily been motivated by the Japanese manufacturers Toyota and Honda, as America's GM, Ford and Chrysler struggle with declining market position. A good deal of shaking down in the industry is foreseen as management and technology sectors are realigned. Many factors are involved that will influence how this all plays out. Many parameters will impact the future of the advanced technology development of the fuel cell vehicle and its components.

According to a soon-to-be-released report from Business Communications Company, Inc. (www.bccresearch.com)   RE-126 New Components for Nex Gen Vehicles, the overall U.S. market for nex gen vehicle components is estimated at $35 million in 2004 and is expected to rise at an AAGR (average annual growth rate) of 42.8% to $208 million in 2009.

This technical/market report analyzes four of the advanced technology components necessary for a workable commercial fuel cell vehicle. These components are the fuel cell module (also considered as the engine), the hydrogen tank, the advanced battery pack and the electric traction motor/controller unit.

Researchers continue to make major advances in the science of fuel cells. However, obtaining realistic manufacturing costs has proved elusive because the technology is rapidly changing, and performance and cost projections are often rooted in substantially different assumptions. The path forward seems to indicate that the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell will be the engine for the fuel cell vehicle. Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) may have a role in supplying auxiliary power units (APUs) for large trucks.

The chemistry for the PEM varies. Toyota and Honda have developed their own very interesting membrane chemistries. Other developers like Ford and DaimlerChrysler prefer Ballard's fuel cell module. In 2004, the fuel cell module represents about 28.6% of those advanced components that are needed for a fuel cell vehicle. In five years, the fuel cell module will be about 43% of the total value of the four advanced components that we are evaluating. This is because the PEM fuel cell module has been improved and some of the other components have shown price reductions faster. This rapid price reduction is especially true for the advanced batteries. The need for a fuel cell vehicle to have horsepower and performance more comparable to a traditional vehicle will become more obvious within the next five years. The fuel cell itself is the engine of the next generation vehicle and must continue to evolve. Values for a fuel cell module market for next generation vehicles is both a new sales market and a replacement or retrofit market.

It is almost, but not quite, as evident that there must be a fuel and a fuel container for a fuel cell vehicle to operate. In the case of a hydrogen fuel cell powered vehicle, the fuel to eventually supply the electrons or electricity is hydrogen. The options for storing hydrogen on a vehicle are as a pressurized gas, as a liquid, or in solid materials such as interstitial or reactive metal hydrides. Falling from favor is the on-board reformer and gaining favor are the interstitial metal hydrides that can release or store hydrogen on demand.

In 2004, the nickel metal hydride (NiMH) battery has about 85% of the advanced battery market for fuel cell transportation. Honda is using its own ultracapacitor. The advanced battery market for fuel cell transportation will see growth in nickel metal hydride batteries, large format lithium-ion/polymer batteries and ultracapacitors alone or in combination with batteries. This sector will show an AAGR of 36.8% over the five-year period.

At present, it is the Japanese automakers that appear to be shaping an insurmountable lead in new vehicular technologies, manufacturing innovation, and management vision. Nothing is certain in the automotive business, however, so the jury will remain out on who will be among the few industry leaders in another decade. This report will not project that far into the future, but we will identify some trends that offer likely possibilities.

The outlook appears to be one of continued turbulence among the automakers and their suppliers. Middle East geopolitical unrest and the resulting oil production ups and downs, refinery capacities, the global economy's vagaries, and uncertainty over which advanced technologies to pursue for the next generation of light vehicles, buses, and trucks are all viewed as major factors acting to confuse the image of next generation transportation development. The next five years will be difficult ones for automakers in terms of stabilizing market share, productivity, and product acceptance by the consumer, and no one can predict the outcome with certainty. Still the fuel cell vehicle's development will move forward.